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Michaelempop

16 Jun 2025 - 07:27 am

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
[url=https://www.ritualgermes.ru/041124/novosti-vasilenko-roman-poslednie-novosti/]гей порно видео[/url]
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

Michaelempop

16 Jun 2025 - 02:07 am

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
русский анальный секс
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

Hhangagon

15 Jun 2025 - 09:31 pm

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Stevennon

15 Jun 2025 - 09:22 pm

Matthew Michael D'Agati functions as the owner of Renewables Worldwide, an Solar Firm in MA.

A couple of age ago, venturing into an adventurous journey, Matthew D'Agati delved into the realm of solar, furthermore in a short efforts began efficiently selling megawatts of power, primarily within the business industry, collaborating with solar farm developers and local businesses in the "design" of specific ideas.

Ongoing marketing found in the field, offered Matthew to be part of a neighborhood startup 2 a very long time earlier, and within no time, he assumed the role of their CSO, in charge of all calculations and sales growth, along with being presented with small section property.

Via ideal unions and shear efforts principles, Matt D'Agati boosted that companionship from a modest earliest-year revenue to over a 205% surge in crying sales revenue by same year two. Based on that foundation, RW, a master-owned or operated business, was designed with the quest of selling sustainable vitality possibilities for an intelligent and more alternative future.

More chiefly, understanding there is an untapped market in the industry and an enhanced method to achieve consequences, RW is one of a select number of providers in the US to place emphasis on guest exchange, concentrating in both financial and residential solar powered town off-take. Your vision is to organize a revenues substructure on a regional, statewide, countrywide level, offering numerous sustainable electric merchandise just in the of RW.

This dedication in really renewable sector carries on to delight and inspire Matt in lasting his venture to work with establishments that exchange the equivalent of supplying limitless electric remedies for a further sustainable longer term. Matt keeps per in businesses from Hesser College.

Understanding solar energy with Matthew dagati.
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15 Jun 2025 - 04:50 pm

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Alexnib

14 Jun 2025 - 06:18 pm

Проблемы со входом на площадку Kraken
Сайт Kraken позволяет любому человеку купить запрещённые препараты и поддельные купюры. И даже заказать услуги, применять которые запрещено законом. Однако часто, переходя на сайт, пользователь сталкивается с проблемами – Кракен не работает. Из-за этого не выйдет купить нужное средство, знакомиться с ассортиментом. Для того чтобы таких проблем не было клиенту сервиса нужно познакомиться с причинами невозможности зайти на Кракен.
Причины отсутствия доступа на сайт Kraken
Причинами того, что сайт Kraken не открывается, становятся:
• Запрет доступа провайдером или национальным регулятором.
• Заражение компьютера вирусами.
• Заблокированный доступ антивирусом или файерволом.
• Ошибка в работе веб-обозревателя.
• Неполадки на стороне провайдера.
• Изменение адреса основного или зеркального сайта.
Часть проблем несложно исправить. Можно удалить веб-адрес Kraken из файла hosts. Или отключить плагины и приложения, которые мешают попасть на сайт. Неполадки с Сетью решатся, если подождать пока восстановится связь. Если изменился адрес следует найти новый – избегая фальшивых ссылок. Но, когда вход заблокирован специально, нужно использовать специальные сервисы и ссылки.
Как зайти на сервис Kraken
Сервисы VPN дают возможность перейти почти на все сайты. А использовать ВПН можно, установив приложение или браузерное расширение. Работать с VPN-сервисом легко. А c учётом скрытого IP, открывается свободный доступ к Кракену. Но у VPN есть свои минусы:
• уменьшение скорости;
• меньший уровень анонимности если сравнивать с Tor;
• ограничение бесплатных мегабайт – для безлимитного доступа за использование VPN нужно платить.
Ещё один способ решить проблему, если не открывается kraken сайт – использовать для входа браузер Тор. Он совершенно бесплатный, обеспечивает конфиденциальность, не хранит историю и позволяет избежать контроля. Недостатки у браузера тоже есть. Заходя на Кракен с его помощью, можно заметить снижение скорости доступа.
Зеркала – хороший вариант перехода на заблокированный ресурс. Он подойдёт, если доступ к сервису заблокирован, когда изменился адрес торговой площадки, и при перерыве на техническое обслуживание. Интерфейс зеркальной версии повторяет основной ресурс. Скорость доступа не падает. А перейти на зеркало сайта Кракен можно из обычного браузера.

Ralphsmawn

14 Jun 2025 - 02:28 pm

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Inicio Info Servicios Libro de Visitas Contáctanos
Ingresar - Registrarse Blog Últimas publicaciones Menú Servicios Inicio Libro de Visitas Galería de fotos Contáctanos Text	Si buscas hosting web, dominios web, correos empresariales o crear páginas web gratis, ingresa a PaginaMX Por otro lado, si buscas crear códigos qr online ingresa al Creador de Códigos QR más potente que existe Tweet Libro de Visitas Michaelempop 16 Jun 2025 - 07:27 am There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one [url=https://www.ritualgermes.ru/041124/novosti-vasilenko-roman-poslednie-novosti/]гей порно видео[/url] A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic. It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.” Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition. Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life. The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world. All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so. For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November. It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Why so many ghosts? No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data. The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center. The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it. Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time. The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water. Michaelempop 16 Jun 2025 - 02:07 am There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one русский анальный секс A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic. It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.” Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition. Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life. The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world. All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so. For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November. It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Why so many ghosts? No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data. The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center. The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it. Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time. The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water. Hhangagon 15 Jun 2025 - 09:31 pm Commencing a voyage into the complex sphere of fashion and style displays a rich array of COACH Outlet aspects that impact but also our clothing choices but also our understanding of self-image and public perception. Comprehending the unfolding history of various styles gives an important backdrop for the purpose of valuing the cyclical nature of stylistic movements, through which past influences frequently reappear featuring fresh perspectives. Focusing intently on the intricate connection among color theory, advancements in fabrics, and the basis of clothing creation and structure creates opportunities for a more informed perspective on Michael Kors Uhren developing a well-rounded closet. Additionally, the surge in sustainable and ethical practices across the clothing sector stresses a significant shift towards conscious purchasing and a deeper understanding regarding the effects on communities and ecosystems of our style decisions. Ultimately, our chosen attire remains Fred Perry Deutschland a perpetually changing means of personal expression and supplies an ongoing opportunity for the purpose of self-discovery furthermore the joyful act of presenting our authentic selves in the broader social context. Outfit Unique Find Dressing Modern Blueprint Tip Best Achieve Wardrobe Your Journey Style Confident Curate Outfits Everyday Secrets Guide Confident Find Appearance Modern Tips Outfit Unique Elevate Looks This Guide e659a7c Stevennon 15 Jun 2025 - 09:22 pm Matthew Michael D'Agati functions as the owner of Renewables Worldwide, an Solar Firm in MA. A couple of age ago, venturing into an adventurous journey, Matthew D'Agati delved into the realm of solar, furthermore in a short efforts began efficiently selling megawatts of power, primarily within the business industry, collaborating with solar farm developers and local businesses in the "design" of specific ideas. Ongoing marketing found in the field, offered Matthew to be part of a neighborhood startup 2 a very long time earlier, and within no time, he assumed the role of their CSO, in charge of all calculations and sales growth, along with being presented with small section property. Via ideal unions and shear efforts principles, Matt D'Agati boosted that companionship from a modest earliest-year revenue to over a 205% surge in crying sales revenue by same year two. Based on that foundation, RW, a master-owned or operated business, was designed with the quest of selling sustainable vitality possibilities for an intelligent and more alternative future. More chiefly, understanding there is an untapped market in the industry and an enhanced method to achieve consequences, RW is one of a select number of providers in the US to place emphasis on guest exchange, concentrating in both financial and residential solar powered town off-take. Your vision is to organize a revenues substructure on a regional, statewide, countrywide level, offering numerous sustainable electric merchandise just in the of RW. This dedication in really renewable sector carries on to delight and inspire Matt in lasting his venture to work with establishments that exchange the equivalent of supplying limitless electric remedies for a further sustainable longer term. Matt keeps per in businesses from Hesser College. Understanding solar energy with Matthew dagati. 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Для того чтобы таких проблем не было клиенту сервиса нужно познакомиться с причинами невозможности зайти на Кракен. Причины отсутствия доступа на сайт Kraken Причинами того, что сайт Kraken не открывается, становятся: • Запрет доступа провайдером или национальным регулятором. • Заражение компьютера вирусами. • Заблокированный доступ антивирусом или файерволом. • Ошибка в работе веб-обозревателя. • Неполадки на стороне провайдера. • Изменение адреса основного или зеркального сайта. Часть проблем несложно исправить. Можно удалить веб-адрес Kraken из файла hosts. Или отключить плагины и приложения, которые мешают попасть на сайт. Неполадки с Сетью решатся, если подождать пока восстановится связь. Если изменился адрес следует найти новый – избегая фальшивых ссылок. Но, когда вход заблокирован специально, нужно использовать специальные сервисы и ссылки. Как зайти на сервис Kraken Сервисы VPN дают возможность перейти почти на все сайты. А использовать ВПН можно, установив приложение или браузерное расширение. Работать с VPN-сервисом легко. А c учётом скрытого IP, открывается свободный доступ к Кракену. Но у VPN есть свои минусы: • уменьшение скорости; • меньший уровень анонимности если сравнивать с Tor; • ограничение бесплатных мегабайт – для безлимитного доступа за использование VPN нужно платить. Ещё один способ решить проблему, если не открывается kraken сайт – использовать для входа браузер Тор. Он совершенно бесплатный, обеспечивает конфиденциальность, не хранит историю и позволяет избежать контроля. Недостатки у браузера тоже есть. Заходя на Кракен с его помощью, можно заметить снижение скорости доступа. Зеркала – хороший вариант перехода на заблокированный ресурс. Он подойдёт, если доступ к сервису заблокирован, когда изменился адрес торговой площадки, и при перерыве на техническое обслуживание. Интерфейс зеркальной версии повторяет основной ресурс. Скорость доступа не падает. А перейти на зеркало сайта Кракен можно из обычного браузера. 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